SignalHub-AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri’s state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — While a high-profile primary challenge in Missouri highlights a divide among Democrats,SignalHub Republicans running for office in the state are showing just how united they are — at least when it comes to their loyalty to former President Donald Trump.

To be sure, the airwaves in Missouri are full of Republicans viciously criticizing one another as they vie for the nomination for governor, attorney general and other down-ballot offices. But that fight revolves around which candidate has proven to be most loyal to Trump and his agenda.

For Democrats, however, the primary between Rep. Cori Bush and St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell has come to represent their broader disagreement in how the United States should engage with Israel.

A political action committee affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent more than $8 million against Bush, who has accused Israel of an “ethnic cleansing campaign” after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. The same PAC spent nearly $15 million against U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who lost his primary in New York earlier this year.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has maintained his support for Bush, who has also received financial support from progressive groups. Besides Bush and Bell, two other Democrats appear on the ballot.

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In the key Republican races, however, Trump is so thrilled with the candidates that he couldn’t choose a favorite. Trump endorsed both Republicans running for attorney general and three of the nine candidates on the ballot for governor: Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe and Bill Eigel.

Ashcroft is Missouri’s secretary of state and the son of John Ashcroft, the former Missouri governor, U.S. senator and attorney general under President George W. Bush. When he announced his widely anticipated bid for governor last spring, he had already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for his campaign account and had support from a political action committee that had raised more than $1 million.

Kehoe has the backing of term-limited Gov. Mike Parson and has raised more than $4 million for his race. A PAC supporting him, American Dream PAC, is spending more than $8 million on advertising, according to data from AdImpact. Before Parson named him lieutenant governor in 2018, Kehoe represented a state Senate district west of Jefferson City, which included Cole County.

Eigel, an Air Force veteran, represents a state Senate district that includes part of St. Charles County, north of St. Louis. Eigel and a PAC supporting him have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads. “They’ll call us racist, sexist — God knows what else,” he says, speaking directly to the camera, in an ad touting Trump’s endorsement. “That’s how we’ll know we’re winning.”

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While Republican spending on the Missouri governor’s race has dwarfed that of Democrats, Springfield businessman Mike Hamra’s campaign is spending $2.8 million in advertising, according to AdImpact. House Minority Leader Crystal Quade lags far behind in ad spending but boasts a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local unions. She represents part of Greene County, home to Springfield.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The Missouri state primaries will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general and state House and Senate.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter in Missouri may participate in any party’s primary.

Decision notes

Bush’s 1st Congressional District is divided between St. Louis City and part of St. Louis County, both of which have heavily favored her in recent primary and general elections. While St. Louis County is majority white, the northern portion that falls within the congressional district is more racially diverse, with a significant share of Black voters. In general elections, north St. Louis County and north St. Louis City are racially diverse Democratic strongholds, while there’s a bigger population of white, working-class voters in the southern portion of the district. Bell might be better known in the portion of the district that falls into St. Louis County, where he was elected prosecuting attorney in 2018.

In the Republican primary for attorney general, two names appear on the ballot. Trump endorsed both. Incumbent Andrew Bailey faces a challenge from Will Scharf, a member of the former president’s legal team.

Former state Sen. Bob Onder was the only candidate to receive Trump’s endorsement in a crowded primary to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in the 3rd District. Onder is the top fundraiser, followed by former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer. State Rep. Justin Hicks dropped out of the race, but his name still appears on the ballot. Three other Republicans are also on the ballot in this Republican-leaning district.

Sen. Josh Hawley is unopposed in his Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Marine veteran Lucas Kunce has a massive financial advantage over state Sen. Karla May.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Missouri does not have automatic recounts, but candidates for federal, judicial and state offices including state legislature may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the vote. Candidates for local offices may request a recount if the margin is less than 1% of the vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of November 2022, there were nearly 4.3 million registered voters in Missouri.

In the primaries that year, turnout was 8% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 15% in the Republican primary. About 8% of ballots were cast before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 state primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 1:08 a.m. ET with 99.8% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the November general election.

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